Betting 101 · Red Meat & Cigar Club editorial
Futures
Long-range bets on the season.
Example numbers — made up for illustration, not real lines
Futures are bets on outcomes that will be decided down the road — sometimes months away. Who will win the Super Bowl? Will the Nuggets win the Northwest Division? Who will be MVP? How many games will the Broncos win this season? Futures give you a reason to care all season long.
Common types
- Championship winner: Super Bowl, World Series, Stanley Cup, NBA Finals, college championships.
- Conference and division winners.
- Season win totals: over/under on regular-season wins. Example: a team at 9.5 wins.
- Awards: MVP, Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, and others.
- Playoff yes/no: will a team make the postseason?
How the odds work
Futures are usually priced with big plus numbers because many outcomes are possible. Example: a team at +1200 to win the title. A $10 bet returns $130 total ($120 profit) if they win. A heavy preseason favorite might be +400 or +500; long shots can be +10000 or more.
Bigger margins
Add up the implied probabilities of every team in a championship market and the total is often far above 100% — sometimes well above the roughly 105% you'd see on a single -110 game. That's the book's margin, spread across many outcomes. Futures are fun, but you're often paying more for the privilege.
Your money is tied up
A futures bet locks up your stake until the event settles. A preseason Super Bowl bet placed in September might not resolve until February. Factor that into your bankroll; money sitting in a futures bet isn't available for anything else.
Prices change all season
Futures odds move with injuries, trades, and results. A team that starts hot might go from +3000 to +800 in a few weeks; a star's injury can send a contender's price soaring. That's part of the fun of following futures — and why the "right time" to bet one is impossible to know in advance.
Cashing out and hedging
Many books offer a cash-out option on futures before they settle, at a price the book sets. Some bettors "hedge" by betting against their own futures later to lock in a smaller guaranteed return. Both options cost something; the book's margin applies again. There's nothing wrong with either, but understand that you're trading potential upside for certainty.
Rules to check
Read how a book settles futures if a season is shortened, if a player is traded, or for awards with ties. Win-total bets may require a minimum number of games played. House rules differ.
The takeaway
Futures turn a whole season into one long sweat. Keep stakes small, expect most of them to lose, and enjoy having a reason to watch.
Worked example
Example: in September, a team is +2000 to win the title. A $10 bet would return $210 total. By January, the team is a playoff favorite at +350. The bettor might hold, cash out at whatever price the book offers, or hedge by betting on the opponent in a key game. Each choice trades some upside for certainty. None is "right" — it depends on what the bettor values.
Common mistakes
- Spreading money across many long shots, where the combined margin is high.
- Forgetting how much of your bankroll is tied up until the season ends.